ДЕТЕРМІНОВАНО-СТОХАСТИЧНЕ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ВИРОБНИЦТВА ЕЛЕКТРОЕНЕРГІЇ В ОБ’ЄДНАНИХ ЕНЕРГОСИСТЕМАХ НА ДОВГОСТРОКОВУ ПЕРСПЕКТИВУ

M.M. Kulyk; D.P. Sas

No. 5 (2014), Electric Power Systems and Installations

No. 5 (2014)

Electric Power Systems and Installations

DETERMINISTIC-STOCHASTIC MODELING ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN INTEGRATED POWER SYSTEMS FOR A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE

Published 2014-08-11

M.M. Kulyk⁺⁻
D.P. Sas⁺⁻

M.M. Kulyk

Institute of General Energy of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, str. Antonovycha, 172, Kyiv, 03680, Ukraine

D.P. Sas

Institute of General Energy of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, str. Antonovycha, 172, Kyiv, 03680, Ukraine

ARTICLE_10_PDF (Українська)

Keywords

deterministic-stochastic modeling
electricity
forecasting
power system
GDP electric intensity
electricity consumption детерміновано-стохастичне моделювання
електроенергія
прогнозування
енергосистема
електроємність ВВП
електроспоживання

How to Cite

[1]

Kulyk, M. and Sas, D. 2014. DETERMINISTIC-STOCHASTIC MODELING ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN INTEGRATED POWER SYSTEMS FOR A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE. Tekhnichna Elektrodynamika. 5 (Aug. 2014), 032.

Abstract

In this paper the issue of forecasting electricity production for a long term perspective with the use of UP-DOWN method and deterministic-stochastic modeling is considered. The reasonability of using deterministic-stochastic modeling for solving such tasks is explained. The special aspects of forecasting electricity consumption on macro level UP and sectoral level DOWN on the base of interaction detection models are described as well as structure and principle of operation of developed deterministic-stochastic model for adjusting the results of forecasting. The input data and the results of calculation of electricity production in Ukraine up to 2030 are presented. References 4, tables 2.

ARTICLE_10_PDF (Українська)

References

Energy Strategy of Ukraine up to 2030 (approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on July 24, 2013 № 1071-p.). (Ukr)

Sas D.P. Forecasting electricity demand using UP-DOWN method // Problemy zahalnoi enerhetyky. – 2013. – №3(34). – Pp. 11–16. (Ukr)

Statistical Yearbook of Ukraine for 2011. – Kyiv: Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, 2012. – 559 p. (Ukr)

Shulzhenko S.V. The specific aspect of cost indicators calculation in forecasting development of power systems in market conditions of its operation // Problemy zahalnoyi enerhetyky. – 2008. – №18. – Pp. 16–20. (Ukr)